Foresight in the Context of Global Trends: Principles, Methods, and Opportunities |
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This paper explores the importance and role of foresight in a rapidly changing world as well as the differences between strategic thinking, framing, and planning. Next, it discusses the basic principles of foresight methods and their application to foresight-based public policy and other objectives. Finally, the paper sets out a list of qualifications to be met by the states and societies aiming to develop a high quality foresight framework.
Notably, traditional decision-making and strategic planning tools can no longer effectively address sudden and/or large-scale modern challenges, such as climate change, geopolitical pressures, and technological progress. In an unstable and interconnected world, even a minor incident unrelated to a specific entity – whether a state, institution, or company – can cause considerable damage to it.
Building crisis resilience and reducing uncertainty requires not only responding to challenges, but also being proactive in anticipating them. Foresight is therefore an essential tool for organisations and countries to better understand and prepare for a wide range of contingencies and scenarios. Foresight methods are considered part of strategic thinking and, differently from traditional methods better suited to linear thinking and stable conditions, require synthesis, intuition, and creativity instead of a rigid logic-driven approach. The relevance of the discussed foresight tools is further enhanced by their versatility, as they can be applied in public, private, and non-governmental sectors as well as in academia.
Since the complex and chaotic nature of today’s world makes it impossible to avoid uncertainty altogether, it is necessary to continuously use the latest information to update and adapt foresight scenarios and other foresight products. Furthermore, it is essential to recognise that the tasks of generating high-quality foresight and establishing foresight systems require the right combination of culture, structures, processes, and people.
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